Controlling for Geographic Dispersion when Estimating the Japanese Phillips CurveInstitute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2006 - 27 pagina's This paper argues that estimation of the Phillips curve for Japan should take account of the geographic dispersion of labor-market conditions. We find evidence that the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate is convex. With such convexity, wage inflation can occur when unemployment rates across regions become more disperse, even if the aggregate unemployment rate is unchanged. We show that controlling for the geographic dispersion of unemployment rates yields a flatter Phillips curve and a higher natural rate of unemployment.--Publisher's description. |
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20 observations absolute t-statistics active opening rate actual active opening actual unemployment aggregate inflation aggregate Phillips curve aggregate unemployment rate Bank of Japan became more similar business cycle Coefficient of variation contractual cash earnings CV of regional Discussion Paper Series dispersion of labor-market dispersion of regional dispersion of unemployment downward nominal wage estimated coefficient expected inflation Figure flatter Phillips curve Fujiki geographic dispersion includes CV including bonus inclusion of CV indicates statistical significance inflation and labor-market inflation expectations intercept Japanese Phillips curve Kuroda and Yamamoto labor-market conditions likelihood-ratio test Ministry of Health monetary policy Natural Active Opening Nishizaki and Watanabe nominal wage rigidity null hypothesis opening ratio percent level period prefectural vacancy rates quadratic specification rate of unemployment rate squared regional unemployment rates relationship between wage Section statistically significant survey Toyoda trend NAOR trend NRU Trend productivity growth wage inflation wage measures wages per hour Wall and Zoega