Critical Transitions in Nature and SocietyPrinceton University Press, 26 jul 2009 - 384 pagina's How do we explain the remarkably abrupt changes that sometimes occur in nature and society--and can we predict why and when they happen? This book offers a comprehensive introduction to critical transitions in complex systems--the radical changes that happen at tipping points when thresholds are passed.
|
Inhoudsopgave
Introduction | 1 |
11 Coral Reef Collapse | 2 |
12 The Birth of the Sahara Desert | 3 |
13 Shifts in Societies | 5 |
14 Content of this Book | 6 |
Alternative Stable States | 11 |
21 The Basics | 13 |
22 Some Mechanisms | 25 |
103 Synthesis | 213 |
Terrestrial Ecosystems | 216 |
112 SmallScale Transitions in Semiarid Vegetation | 221 |
113 Boreal Forests and Tundra | 226 |
114 The Rise and Fall of Raised Bogs | 230 |
115 Species Extinction in Fragmented Landscapes | 234 |
116 Epidemics as Critical Transitions | 237 |
117 Synthesis | 239 |
23 Synthesis | 36 |
Cycles and Chaos | 37 |
32 Complex Dynamics | 42 |
33 Basin Boundary Collision | 50 |
34 Synthesis | 54 |
Emergent Patterns in Complex Systems | 55 |
41 Spatial Patterns | 56 |
42 Stability of Complex Interacting Networks | 65 |
43 The Adaptive Cycle Theory | 75 |
44 Synthesis | 79 |
Implications of Fluctuations Heterogeneity and Diversity | 81 |
51 Permanent Change | 82 |
52 Spatial Heterogeneity and Modularity | 85 |
53 Diversity of Players | 90 |
54 Synthesis | 95 |
Conclusion From Theoretical Concepts to Reality | 96 |
62 Basins of Attraction | 98 |
63 Resilience | 101 |
64 Adaptive Capacity | 103 |
65 Critical Transitions | 104 |
Lakes | 109 |
71 Transparency of Shallow Lakes | 110 |
72 Dynamics | 125 |
73 Other Alternative Stable States | 131 |
74 Synthesis | 138 |
Climate | 139 |
81 Deep Time Climate Shifts | 141 |
82 Glaciation Cycles | 149 |
83 Abrupt Climate Change on Shorter Timescales | 157 |
84 Synthesis | 164 |
Evolution | 166 |
92 Early Animal Evolution and the Cambrian Explosion | 168 |
93 The EndPermian Extinction | 172 |
94 The Angiosperm Radiation | 174 |
95 From Dinosaurs to Mammals | 176 |
96 Global Warming and the Birth of Primates Deer and Horses | 177 |
97 In Search of the Big Picture | 178 |
98 Synthesis | 184 |
Oceans0 | 186 |
101 Open Ocean Regime Shifts | 187 |
102 Coastal Ecosystems | 201 |
Humans | 240 |
121 Shifting Cells | 242 |
122 Shifting Minds | 243 |
123 Behavioral LockIn | 244 |
124 Inertia and Shifts in Group Attitudes | 246 |
125 Societies in Crisis | 250 |
126 Synthesis | 257 |
Conclusion Critical Transitions in a Complex World | 259 |
How to Know if Alternative Basins of Attraction Exist | 265 |
142 Experimental Evidence | 270 |
143 Mechanistic Insight | 273 |
144 Synthesis | 280 |
How to Know if a Threshold Is Near | 282 |
Signs of Upcoming Transitions | 283 |
152 Precursors of Transitions in Real Systems | 290 |
153 Reliablility of the Signals | 293 |
154 Synthesis | 294 |
The Winding Road from Science to Policy | 296 |
161 Exploiting Nature in the Smartest Way | 297 |
163 Synthesis | 309 |
New Approaches to Managing Change | 311 |
171 Promoting Good Transitions | 312 |
172 Preventing Bad Transitions | 320 |
173 Synthesis | 324 |
Prospects | 326 |
182 Toward a Practical Science of Critical Transitions | 327 |
Appendix | 329 |
A2 Allee Effect | 332 |
A4 Competition between Two Species | 334 |
A5 Multispecies Competition | 338 |
A6 Predator Prey Cycles | 339 |
A7 The Hopf Bifurcation | 341 |
A9 Basin Boundary Collision | 344 |
A11 SelfOrganized Patterns | 345 |
A12 Alternative Stable States in Shallow Lakes | 347 |
A13 Floating Plants | 348 |
A14 Contingency in Behavior | 350 |
Glossary | 353 |
Notes | 359 |
379 | |