eminent geologist, of Sydney University, who had himself got pretty near the South Pole with the Shackleton expedition, gave them kindly words of advice and encouragement, and the Kainan Maru sailed away with the good wishes of all Australia. Mark the sequel. The Kainan Maru returned to Wellington (N.Z.) on the 23rd of March this year, having been away just 124 days. During its wanderings it lost some of its dogs-that was all. The explorers then announced that they did not go to look for the South Pole, but confined themselves to scientific exploration.' It is needless to comment on the irreconcilable statements made. as to the business of this expedition in the Southern Seas. There were those who, before the party left Sydney, had their doubts. about the real object in view. These doubts are now more than strengthened. The impression is gaining ground in Australia that the Kainan Maru's mission was neither more nor less than part of a general plan by the Japanese to mark out territory for occupation in the South Pacific.

But let that pass. The yellow races have yet to realise the value of consolidation. That may come. A Chino-Japanese alliance is a perfectly natural development. It is perhaps inevitable, and may come when China's internal strife and bloodshed are ended and the great Oriental Republic now in the making settles down to business. With China and Japan in alliance, the yellow man will begin to feel his real strength, and, no doubt, cherish an ambition for a bigger place in the sun than he has yet dreamed of. East and West may thus soon find themselves on a relatively changed footing, their lines of life drifting still farther apart. To paraphrase the well-known words in Lee's tragedy, when Asiatics join Asiatics, then will come the tug-of-war.

At any rate China, freed from the manacles of the Manchu and become a Republic, must in future be reckoned with on a basis of valuation as a World Power far different from that in its pigtail period. For it is not a question of what the present generation of Asiatics may be contemplating. It is what future generations, in their own interests, may be driven to do.

The existing Anglo-Japanese Treaty expires within the next three years. Up to yesterday, so to speak, everything pointed to a further renewal of the alliance. Mutuality of interest required a continuance of existing relations. But the whole international position has been fundamentally altered by the revolution in China. In that revolution the hand of the Jap may be traced, not, to be sure, as instigator, but a's the friend, guardian, and counsellor of the principal actor in the hideous drama. Yuan Shi-kai, to-day the first man in China, has long been under Japanese tutelage and influence. To Germany, for that and incidental reasons,

he was never persona grata. That he is now at the head of the newly-born Republic must be peculiarly gratifying to Japan, and he only just missed the Imperial Crown. From the end of the Russo-Japanese war, if not before, the eventual Japanisation of China was clearly foreseen, and by no Power more sharply realised than Germany. Next to Russia, Japan's smashing victories at Port Arthur and on the sea were most seriously regarded by Germany, whose ambitious enterprises in Asia received a check that profoundly disturbed the equanimity of the Wilhelmstrasse. Yuan Shi-kai's elevation may be regarded as one of the most signal triumphs of Japanese diplomacy. It is a further revelation of the genius for high statesmanship of that far-seeing, patient, and singularly gifted people. The Japanisation of China becomes all the easier now by the circumstance that Yuan is neither a Napoleon nor a Cromwell. He is simply a useful and accomplished instrument in the hands of others. Left to his own resources in the bloody upheaval that was sure to come soon or late, he would probably have been one of the first to lose his head. In a peculiar degree Yuan Shi-kai is a Man of Destiny.

From the Australian point of view, as surely from the European and American, Japan is thus seen to be fast strengthening and consolidating her already powerful position, and extending her commanding influence in the East. She has in China a willing and natural friend and ally, the yellow streak of kinship cementing the bonds between them, and the puling and bleeding infant Republic doubtless only too ready to look to this Britain of the East as guardian, guide, and protector.

Hence there must come, as may easily be foreseen, a tremendous swing in the balance of power from West to East. International relationships may be expected to undergo material changes from now onwards, as a result of the revolution in China. The lines of diplomacy among the Great Powers may be forced to cross each other at new points. Japan, through Yuan, will hold China in the hollow of her hand, and use her to the advantage of both herself and her Gargantuan protégée; while the British Alliance may not henceforth be to Japan the beneficial and necessary arrangement it has hitherto been. What dreams of conquest, of greatness, of destiny, may now fill the minds of the silent, high-spirited, calculating Japanese, with their splendid victories immediately behind them, their visions of glory as pillars of fire before, may be left to the imagination. What we have to think about, and what we know, is that Japan, a land not rich in natural resources, must adopt a policy of commercial and territorial expansion. She is not less ambitious, nor is she less keen for expansion, than Germany; while she is quicker in movement, and perhaps more sure in aim. Japan, the undisputed

mistress of the East, conscious of her power, has already shown that she cannot, will not, rest content cribbed, cabined, and confined within her present narrow limits, not even with her footing in Manchuria and Korea. She, too, is 'compassed by the inviolate sea,' like England, her Western ally and geographical prototype. It is, indeed, quite within the bounds of probability that, in colonisation and Empire building, the future history of Japan will bear a strong resemblance to that of England. That this Colossus of the East will yet become a great colonising Power, and leave the stamp of her people's genius wherever her flag flies, seems morally certain. As a sphere of influence, where could this Eastern Colossus find a region more congenial, a land of promise more inviting than Australia?

Than the Japanese no people on this planet are more alive to the value of education as a factor in Empire building; nor would it be easy to name a race so eager to be educated. What Japan now requires is unoccupied or sparsely occupied and fertile territory-above all, the command of the South Pacific. To her the command of the Pacific is a matter of supreme and transcending importance.

Here, to

Now let us glance at Australia's vulnerability. begin with, is a monstrous anomaly, and at the same time a peril. In an age of feverish desire for space and expansion, with the evils of overcrowded cities a reproach to civilisation, and with the eyes of men turned even to polar regions for relief, there lies, far removed from the heart of the Empire, a great continent which, after more than a century of occupation by one of the most progressive races, is the home of a mere handful of people. Let me repeat, here is Australia's deadly peril. Need we wonder that land-hungry people, and nations ambitious for commercial expansion, should be comparing Australians to those big landowning monopolists who neither put their acres to proper use themselves, nor allow others to occupy and cultivate them? An isolated continent so situated cannot fail to excite the envy, the justifiable cupidity, of nations and races who think they can put it to better use. With New Zealand near by, and the countless strings of pendent isles glittering in the South Pacific, Australia stands out as an absolutely priceless possession, the heritage, and for the present the home, of the white man. The Power that holds Australia holds the key to the South Pacific, and the South Pacific is destined, for good or ill, to be the theatre of events which will exercise an all-important influence on the future of the human.

race.

How, then, will Australia stand in the not very remote future? And what is being done, or rather left undone, to preserve her as an integral part of the British Empire and the home of the

white man? The supreme needs of Australia are three in number: (1) Increased population; (2) a consolidation of the Imperial naval and military forces; (3) industrial peace. Only within the last few years have the first two of these received in Australia anything like adequate attention. The third has, unhappily, compelled attention.

It is something gained, however slight, that Australia has at length made some practical recognition of her imperial responsibilities. If the possession of a local navy meant nothing more than the slight material advantages to be derived from this effort at national insurance, it would still be of great value. But it has a deeper significance. It makes for the unity and solidarity of the Empire, and gives eloquent expression to the sentiment in the apothegms: One people, one destiny,' 'One flag, one fleet.' Such, at any rate, was the sentiment that gave it birth. Moreover, the mere fact of the Commonwealth possessing its own ships of war has already had some effect in stimulating popular interest in defence problems. It has also done much in the way of quickening Australian patriotism, though the Australian boy is not responding too readily to the call of duty. The Commonwealth has established a system of compulsory military training for cadets between fourteen and eighteen years of age. The first call to enrol was rather shyly responded to, but as a rule those who have enrolled as cadets have done so with a spirit of loyalty worthy of the best traditions of the British race.1 Many, however, hung back, either from instinctive repugnance to discipline and restraint, or under the authority of parents opposed to militarism in any shape. A few, after enrolling, have shown a disposition to become insubordinate, while some have been punished for default or misbehaviour.

When all is said, it is clear that Australia still remains absolutely dependent upon the British Navy for protection from foreign aggression. For many years to come, the local contribution to the defence of the continent must be comparatively small. Meanwhile, the danger of Australia being detached from Great Britain. increases every year.

The international outlook, leaving China out of the question, is somewhat complicated and clouded by the feverish activity of Germany with her ambitious naval and military preparations. Few in Australia regard those preparations as other than a challenge to Great Britain's naval, commercial, and colonising supremacy. If the German Dreadnoughts and destroyers are not

› At the first review of cadets by the Governor-General of Australia, held in Centennial Park, Sydney, on the 30th of March this year, the field state showed a muster of 18,849 lads in uniform. The smart appearance of the boys, their precision in drill, and soldierly bearing elicted Lord Denman's warm congratulations. This muster was from the metropolitan area only.

being built with the object of breaking the naval power of Great Britain, and wresting from her the command of the sea, the millions being spent on them, on forts and fortifications, and in perfecting the stupendous military organisations of the Fatherland and its alliances, would be a wanton and purposeless waste of treasure. But the whole world knows there is a fixed purpose behind it all. These preparations, it must be remembered, with the tremendous financial burdens they involve, have the sanction of a loyal and carefully instructed German public opinion. The recent signs of a desire for an Anglo-German entente, due to the good offices of Lord Haldane, may be taken for what they are worth. But the suggestion of an English professor for cutting Australia in two and handing over half to Germany is not merely worthless, it is ridiculous and impossible, and is so regarded from one end of Australia to the other. However, should, unhappily, Great Britain and Germany ever go to war, the struggle will take place in a quarter and under conditions that would leave the South Pacific open to the Jap, and the Jap, we may be sure, would not be slow to seize his opportunity. And it is doubtful if the measure of protection which the Mother Country could spare for operations in the China Sea and the South Pacific would be sufficient to save Australia from an Asiatic invasion. Germany, as is well known, has soaring ambitions and far-reaching colonising and commercial aims. Already she has a footing.

in Papua, and some small interests in Pacific islands. Australian shipowners know to their cost what these are. Especially anxious is she to extend and consolidate her interests there. It would be a master stroke of statecraft on the part of the Wilhelmstrasse to detach Australia from Great Britain. By taking possession of Australia herself, Germany would immensely strengthen her position not only in the South Seas, but throughout the world. The temptation is great, the advantages to be gained worth the price of any number of Dreadnoughts.

Something may here be said of the German element in Australia. Numerically the German-born are comparatively few in number, but those of German extraction form no inconsiderable proportion of our population. Immigrants from the Fatherland and their descendants comprise many of the best, the most intelligent, and most valuable of our citizens. They are industrious, thrifty, law-abiding. With a preference for land occupation, they have a tendency to become producers. Such are exactly the class of immigrant that Australia wants. With undiminished reverence for the Fatherland, the German-Australian is as loyal to the land of his adoption and to the British connexion as the average Britisher. To the German in Australia a quarrel between the