of parties-a Conservative country party and a Liberal town partywhich are opposing one another; and if we analyse the Parliamentary position we find that there is a struggle in progress between rural Con servatism and town Liberalism, between agriculture and industry, between Kaiser and people, between North and South. It is worth noting that the South German States are the strongholds of Liberalism and of Social Democracy, whilst Prussia is the stronghold of Conservatism. Therefore the Reichstag's resistance to the Emperor's policy is applauded loudest in the South German States. Their opposition is, to a large extent, a protest against the Prussianising tendencies of Berlin. The sharp geographical division between the two great groups of parties, between the Emperor's party and the People's party, is perhaps not without danger to the future of the German Empire.

The political position in Germany promises to become soon an interesting and perhaps a very serious one. The latent conflict between town and country, between the Emperor and the people, may become acute. If the new Reichstag does not give to the Government a majority willing to extend Germany's naval armaments very considerably, we may either witness another dissolution which will probably be managed by an abler hand than that of Prince Bülow, or we may witness an attempt to destroy the Social Democratic party by depriving the electorate of the franchise, a step which Prince Bismarck had already planned.

According to Article 78 of the German Constitution, 'Changes in the Constitution can be undertaken only by legislation [in other words they require the assent of the Reichstag], and they are vetoed when opposed by 14 votes in the Federal Council.' The Federal Council of the German Empire is composed of 58 members, representing the Governments of the individual States of the German Union. Prussia has only 17 votes, and the remaining 41 votes are held by the smaller States. Consequently a few of the minor States, such as Bavaria, Saxony, and Würtemberg, could, according to the Constitution, by their joint opposition veto the destruction of universal suffrage in Germany. However, as the desire of the smaller States to live at peace with their mighty neighbour Prussia may prove greater than their desire to preserve the existence of the Reichstag in its present form, their opposition might be overcome by negotiation. Hence a coup d'état for weakening the power of the Reichstag may more easily be initiated than many people in Germany imagine, but no one can tell what the effect of such a coup d'état would be. Such a step might lead to a general strike or to worse commotions caused by the Social Democratic party, or it might lead to the most serious complications between Prussia and the Southern States of Germany; for the 'Reform of the Franchise' which is clamoured for by the Prussian Conservatives would make the Emperor almost absolute

in the Empire, and destroy the power of the smaller States and of democracy in the South.

Apparently the Parliamentary position in the new Reichstag will be not very favourable to the Emperor's plan. The position in that assembly has become unfavourable to him chiefly in consequence of bad management on the part of the Government. With some good management a conflict between the Emperor and his Parliament may be avoided. Hence we may soon see a patriotic Reichstag assembled at Berlin which will give to the Emperor the means of building his great fleet. If the German Government appeals to the people on a great national question, the patriotism and the spirit of self-sacrifice among the German population may supply all the Emperor demands, especially as he can reckon upon the support of some most powerful patriotic organisations, such as the German Navy League with 1,000,000 members, the German Veterans' League with 2,300,000 members, and the League of German Gymnasts with 800,000 members. The united forces of these societies would, if a great patriotic issue is skilfully put before the nation, probably overwhelm the forces of Liberalism and of Social Democracy.

If a patriotic Reichstag should be elected, Germany might soon challenge in earnest the supremacy of the British fleet. The next few years, perhaps the next few months, will show whether Germany will become a World-Power and a danger first to Great Britain and eventually to the Anglo-Saxon race, or whether she will remain a European Continental Power which confines her activities within the limits of Europe. Germany stands at the parting of the ways.

To those who are of opinion that Germany cannot compete with Great Britain on the sea because Great Britain is much wealthier than Germany, I would say that Germany, which was formerly much poorer than Great Britain, is now undoubtedly much wealthier than this country. In support of this somewhat startling assertion, I would give a few facts. Germany and the individual States composing it have a very large national debt, but against that debt they possess very considerable assets. Of these the Prussian State railways alone, which earn a profit of 7.52 per cent., would suffice to pay off the whole of the indebtedness of the Empire and of the individual States. The wealth of the masses in Germany is apparent from the details given in the foregoing. The wealth of the classes has increased apparently even at a more rapid rate than that of the working men, as the following statement, which has never before been published in this country, clearly shows:

As figures relating to the income subjected to income-tax and applying to the whole of Germany are not in my possession, I can give only those for Prussia. The income of the classes of Germany should be about 50 per cent. larger than that of Prussia, and amount for 1905, roughly speaking, to 750,000,000l., as against 619,000,0001. for Great Britain. Income-tax is levied, and income is estimated, on different principles in the two countries. Therefore the two total sums given are not strictly comparable. However, the foregoing statement is of the greatest interest, inasmuch as it shows that the income of the classes in Germany has increased by about 70 per cent. during a period when it has remained practically stationary in Great Britain. The trifling increase of about 15 per cent. of the income subjected to income-tax in this country is merely equal to the increase of the population during the same period. Therefore, individual wealth has apparently remained almost stationary in Great Britain. However, in view of the fact that the British income-tax collectors have of late years 'put the screw on' in an unprecedented manner, it seems likely that the income of Great Britain has in reality remained stationary, or has more probably decreased, during a time when it has almost doubled in Germany. Germany is no doubt at present by far the wealthiest State in Europe, and she can well afford to challenge Great Britain on the sea, especially as her population is not only exceedingly prosperous, but also very lightly taxed. I would for instance mention that, according to Von Kaufmann, local taxation in England is 150 per cent. higher than local taxation in Germany. In other words, for every ll. paid in local taxes by German citizens, British citizens have to pay 21. 10s.

Whether Germany will be able to challenge Great Britain on the sea depends evidently not on Germany's wealth, for that is more than sufficient for the purpose, but on the will of her people. On the day after the dissolution of the Reichstag the leading semi-official organ of the Government, the Norddeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung, proclaimed that the coming General Election was to decide whether Germany was to grow from a European Great Power into a WorldPower. That question will apparently be determined very soon, but it may be determined only after a severe struggle between the forces of Conservatism and Liberalism, between the Emperor and the Social Democratic masses. That struggle may become a bloody one. The last issue of the Preussische Jahrbücher gives an interesting article from the pen of Professor Delbrück, and the last issue of Die Grenzboten gives a still more interesting one written by Otto Kaemmel, about the coup d'état which Bismarck planned in 1890. According to these weighty articles, Bismarck saw in the Social Democratic problem chiefly a military one. He clearly foresaw the great development which, since 1890, has been taken by the Social Democratic party. He recognised in it a danger to the power of the Empire

and to the position of the Emperor. Therefore, according to a conversation with Herr Kaemmel, he advised William the Second frankly to treat the Social Democrats as revolutionists, and disfranchise them. William the Second rejected Bismarck's advice, saying: 'I will not begin my rule by wading in blood ankle deep.' Then your Majesty may have to wade in blood more than ankle deep later on,' was Bismarck's reply. It seems by no means impossible that Bismarck's forecast may come true.

J. ELLIS BARKER.

POST SCRIPTUM.-Since the foregoing was written the results of some of the first ballots have been announced. To the profound surprise of all competent observers the Social Democrats have lost a considerable number of seats which have fallen to the Conservative and Liberal parties. Although we have to wait for the results of the second ballots before we can judge of the party-political position in the new Reichstag it seems likely that the advocates of naval and colonial expansion will form the majority.

Before the present election the Germans have been asked by their leaders to choose between a policy of militant imperialism and adventure accompanied by sacrifice in the shape of high taxation and dear food and a cheap policy of industrial and social development beneficial to the individual. Notwithstanding the general disgust which the colonial scandals, which led to the dissolution of the Reichstag, have excited throughout Germany, the German people have selected the former policy and have shown to the world that they prefer future greatness to immediate advantage, that they place national above personal interests, that they prefer power and glory to cheap food.

The results so far announced are not a triumph of Prince Bülow— for he is probably as astonished at them as is everybody else—but a most significant triumph of German Imperialism. The German masses have voted in unprecedented numbers, and they have in the first ballot unmistakably given their verdict in favour of the Emperor's vast world-political aims. Therefore the result of the present election may be of far-reaching importance to various nations, and especially to Great Britain.

J. E. B.

WOMEN AND POLITICS

On behalf of a great though silent multitude of women, I desire to set forth some of the grounds on which we shrink from the proposed abolition of our present exemption from the office of electing members of Parliament. This change, if made without any serious attempt to ascertain the wishes of the women of England, may inflict upon them, against their will and without a hearing, a grave injustice.

I am not about to attempt a full discussion of the whole subject, that being a task for which I am by no means competent. Nor is it my purpose to argue against the proposed measure. My objects are (1) to urge the claim of women to be consulted before any such unaccustomed share in the work of the country is assigned to them; and (2) to contribute towards the full and deliberate consideration of the question in all its bearings by calling attention to some of the pleas which women of the more retiring type are either unable, or for obvious reasons unwilling, to put forward for themselves.

(1) With regard to the first question-viz., the claim of women to be consulted before the introduction of any measure so profoundly affecting their interests, and through them the interests of the whole nation-a very few words will suffice, for there can scarcely be two opinions as to the desirableness of the step if practicable. And it could hardly 'pass the wit of man' to devise some method by which the opinion of women could be ascertained. There can be no impossibility about a referendum, however unfamiliar to us may be the necessary machinery. In this way, and in this way alone, we could ascertain what is the real wish of Englishwomen in this matter. We who object to the change would assuredly be glad of the opportunity of protesting; while the women who are agitating for the suffrage could not without obvious inconsistency demand that it should be given without reference to the wish of one half the nation.' We may be wrong in thinking that the change in our position would be disastrous. We cannot be wrong in maintaining that it should not be involuntary.

(2) But to set forth the grounds on which many women are strongly though silently opposed to the measure is a far more arduous task. The difficulty of approaching the subject from a point of view