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Great Britain has no longer the monopoly of maritime ability. The Germans and Americans have proved themselves able seamen and excellent shipbuilders. The longest national purse can build the strongest national fleet. Therefore the question whether Great Britain will be able to maintain the two-Power standard against the United States and Germany is mainly a financial one.

Unfortunately it seems clear that Great Britain will financially not be able to maintain her naval supremacy against the United States and Germany, and it must even be doubted whether Great Britain will be able to continue for long outbuilding the German Navy, notwithstanding all official and semi-official declarations to the effect that for every ship laid down by Germany Great Britain will lay down two ships. It is generally known that the United States are richer than Great Britain, but it is not generally known that Germany also is apparently richer than is this country; that in a financial duel for naval pre-eminence Germany may prove stronger than this country. Great Britain has some 40,000,000 inhabitants, Germany has some 60,000,000 inhabitants, and as the German workers are fully employed whilst a very heavy percentage of British workers is always out of employment, we may say that in productive manpower Great Britain and Germany stand not in the relation of 4 to 6, but approximately in the relation of 4 to 7. Besides, all the German industries, including agriculture, are exceedingly flourishing, as may be seen from the fact that, notwithstanding the immense yearly increase of her population, Germany suffers chronically from a dearth of workers, so that immigration into Germany is greater than emigration from Germany, whilst most British industries are stagnant or decaying, as may be seen by the fact that, notwithstanding a yearly emigration of from 200,000 to 300,000 people, the British labour market remains congested, and that Great Britain suffers continually, and very acutely, from a dearth of work and consequent unemployment and pauperism. In view of this state of affairs, we cannot wonder that, if we compare the British and German income-tax statistics, we find that the income of the German classes has, during the last fifteen years, increased five times faster than that of the British classes, and that, if we compare British and German savings-banks statistics, we find that the savings of the German masses have, during the last six years, increased ten times faster than those of the British masses. These and many other facts, which it would lead too far to mention in this space, make it clear that Germany is considerably richer than is Great Britain, and that her wealth is rapidly growing whilst ours remains comparatively stationary, and if we look at the other side of the account we find that the German citizens are not only richer but are also less heavily taxed than are the British citizens. For every 17. paid in the form of income tax by the average German taxpayer, the average British taxpayer has to pay 21., and for every 11. paid by

the average German householder in local taxation the average British householder has to pay 21. 10s. The foregoing facts indicate that Germany is financially able to outbuild the British fleet, and the result of the recent Reichstag election seems to show that the nation has also the ambition and the will to do so.

The wealth of a nation depends in the first instance, not upon the quantity of commodities exported and imported, and upon the quantity of its possessions of printed paper in the shape of stocks and shares, but upon the number of its inhabitants engaged in active production. The United States have some 80,000,000 inhabitants, Germany has some 60,000,000 inhabitants, Great Britain has some 40,000,000 inhabitants. The German population increases three times faster than the British population, the American population increases five times faster than the British population, and the population of Germany and of the United States combined increases eight times faster than the British population. In man-power, which after all is a more important economic factor than machine-power, although it is hardly mentioned in the textbooks of political economy, Germany and the United States are so far superior to Great Britain, and the disproportion between the man-power possessed by Great Britain and her two greatest rivals is increasing to our disadvantage with such alarming rapidity, that it is evident that Great Britain cannot much longer maintain her naval supremacy, because she will lack the necessary financial means, and, having lost her naval supremacy, she will certainly be deserted by her present allies.

The foregoing remarks make it clear that the British Empire can be preserved only if the supremacy of the British Navy be maintained against both the United States and Germany, but they make it equally clear that Great Britain will soon financially be unable to continue maintaining her naval supremacy not only against the two second strongest naval Powers, but even against Germany alone. As the burden which rests upon the British producer can hardly be greatly increased, it seems almost certain that within ten, or at the utmost within twenty, years, Great Britain will have sunk either to the second or to the third rank among naval Powers, and that the British Empire will then be a thing of the past.

The position of the Empire is evidently a most critical, though it is not yet a desperate, one. Happily, the possession of the rule of the sea gives us several years' breathing time, and enables us to provide against the very great dangers of the future. Although Great Britain, standing alone, cannot possibly much longer preserve her naval supremacy, the United British Empire can certainly maintain it. The latent resources of the British Empire are greater than are the latent resources of the United States and Germany combined. Although the British Empire cannot possibly be defended by Great Britain alone against the two second strongest naval Powers, it can

certainly, as far as one can see into the future, be defended practically for all time by a navy which is paid for by an Imperial Exchequer.

Necessity, not parliamentary resolutions and after-dinner orations, creates States and Empires. The necessity of making the British Empire, which is at present merely a geographical expression, a political reality has now arrived, and that necessity is most urgent. The British Empire can be preserved only if the Governments of Great Britain and the Colonies are willing to place Imperial above local interests. The British Colonies are naturally averse from paying into the British national exchequer large contributions for Imperial defence, over the spending of which they have not the slightest control, which are to be used towards the maintenance of a navy which is exclusively directed by a British Admiralty. Therefore, an Imperial defence based upon Imperial means can be organised only if the nucleus of an Imperial Cabinet, with an Imperial Navy Board, an Imperial Exchequer, and an Imperial Senate, representing the whole Empire, be created.

The British Empire has grown out of its old clothes. We can no longer leave the organisation of the Empire in a state of chaos, and follow a happy-go-lucky hand-to-mouth policy without any definite aim, making Imperial interests subordinate to the British partypolitical requirements of the moment, but we must follow a farseeing policy of deliberate and constructive Imperialism. We must organically connect our vast colonies and possessions with the Motherland, and planfully rear a solid Imperial edifice. We must, before all, protect the magnificent undeveloped or partly developed Imperial domain for future generations, by organising the defence of the Empire on an Imperial basis. We must, under the protection of a supreme fleet, people our colonies as rapidly as possible, and thereby strengthen them both militarily and economically. We must re-create the British industries which our blind faith in the wisdom of certain economic theories and our consequent policy of deliberate neglect have caused to decay, so that Germany, notwithstanding her poor natural resources and the burden of militarism, is now actually richer than Great Britain, and can afford to challenge our maritime supremacy.

The question of the unification of the Empire by the creation of a supreme Imperial Government representative of the whole Empire as well as the question of the protection of the national resources and the home industries of Great Britain by suitable State action, fiscal or otherwise, is not a party question, but is the most important national question. It is in the first instance a question of military defence, and it is a question upon which depends the life or death of Great Britain and of the British Empire. The latent resources of Great Britain and her Colonies are practically boundless, but they have been insufficiently developed, and these latent resources must be developed to the utmost and fully utilised for the preservation of

our possessions, of our position in the world, of our peace, of our prosperity, and of our civilisation. This is the most urgent political problem of the moment. Our policy should therefore be to develop our latent resources with the greatest vigour, not in accordance with the dictates of abstract scientific theory, but in accordance with the dictates of common sense, and with the universal practical experience of mankind.

I think it is clear that Great Britain cannot much longer defend the Empire single-handed. Therefore the Prime Ministers of Great Britain and of the Colonies must seriously think of creating without delay an Imperial force for the defence of the Empire, directed by an Imperial Cabinet and financed by Imperial means. The action of the present Colonial Conference may determine the fate of Great Britain and of the Empire, for the next ten or twenty years should decide whether the British Empire will stand or fall.

J. ELLIS BARKER.

SOUTH AFRICAN LOYALTY

A RECENT visit to South Africa, in the course of which I renewed acquaintance with men of different shades of opinion and of both the white races, is my excuse for this article. The observations of a traveller sometimes have a value which is lacking to more settled resident opinion.

The result of the first general election in the Transvaal, and the appointment of General Botha, five years ago our enemy, to the position of Prime Minister, compel popular attention once more to the country. What is to be the result?

At home the Liberal party frankly disapproved of the war. Is the effect of their policy, and of the Constitutions which they have granted to the Transvaal and have promised to the Orange River Colony, to set the clock back and to leave the position of Boers and British as before the struggle ?

General Botha has told us that he has come to the Colonial Conference to say that Briton and Boer are alike loyal to the British flag. But there are many Englishmen who are not satisfied, hoping that it may be true, but suspicious that it is too good to deserve credence. It is difficult to see the whole picture in its true perspective. The resident of South Africa emerging from the turmoil of a general election, and wearing still the spectacles of his party, is at as great a disadvantage in measuring its true proportions as the British Islander, who sees dimly from a distance through the unequally focussed binoculars of antagonistic party newspapers at home. Nor can it be realised in all its significance without some regard to history. We must pursue that will-of-the-wisp-the ideal of South African independence. We must discover whether the ideal still exists, and whether it is in accord with the material interests of the present population. Only then shall we see plain.

I shall first endeavour to show that the ideal of South African independence arose not in the Cape Colony, nor in the Orange Free State, but in the Transvaal; that in the Transvaal it owed its influence entirely to the energy of one man, Paul Kruger; and that it vanished with his death. I shall assume that a dead ideal cannot be revived if it is contrary to the material interests of the public, and I shall

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