régime were soon revived in Macedonia and elsewhere, while, to maintain its secret despotism, the Committee gradually reverted to the Hamidian weapons of corruption and delation, reinforced not infrequently by assassination. The saner and more liberal elements were steadily overborne by the more violent faction; and the unfortunate Sultan Mahomet V, who had lived for thirty years during Abdul Hamid's reign as a state-prisoner in daily terror of his brother, soon lived in equal terror of the men who had put him on the throne. In proportion as the Committee, drifting down an evil plane, forfeited the sympathies of the Western Powers, it naturally fell back into the arms of Germany, who, as in Abdul Hamid's days, was willing to ask no questions so long as she obtained full value from the de facto rulers of Turkey in return for her political support.

At times, however, the situation must have severely taxed even Baron von Marschall's ingenuity. In 1911 the Italian invasion of Tripoli raised awkward questions. For was not Italy the ally of Germany? and how could Germany, as the friend of Turkey, suffer her ally to lay hands on Ottoman territory? In the following year the birth of the Balkan League, of which the paternity was ascribed to Russia, and the overthrow of the Turkish armies in the first Balkan war, were calculated to deal a still more serious blow to Germany's prestige. But, though to the chagrin of the Germanic Powers Serbia emerged triumphant from the second Balkan war, it brought some comfort to the Turks in the recovery of Adrianople; and, after the assassination of Nazim, the Committee of Union and Progress found in Enver Pasha a master who was determined to stake his own future with that of the Turkish Empire on a huge gamble which he could only carry through in partnership with Germany. Enver, who had been Military Attaché in Berlin, had long since been won over to the German interest; and he was just the tool that the Germanic Powers needed, when, Bulgaria having failed to destroy the rising power of Serbia, they were themselves-as we now know from Signor Giolitti's disclosures-resolved to smash 'the spearhead of Russia,' even at the risk of a general European

war.

Enver poses, we are told, as the Napoleon of Turkey.

His career has certainly been meteoric. One of the leaders of the military revolt against Abdul Hamid, he t organised the resistance of the Arab tribes in Tripoli; and he has himself likened his return from Africa during the Balkan wars to Bonaparte's return from Egypt. He was for a time something of a popular hero; and the recovery of Adrianople, for which he took the chief credit, helped him at any rate to build up a dictatorship of more than Napoleonic ruthlessness, which finally plunged Turkey into the great war. With over twenty thousand Germans at his back, and the 'Goeben' and the 'Breslau' in the Golden Horn, he has been able to defy the Palace and the Porte and all the inarticulate mass of the Turkish people, vaguely conscious of impending ruin. Nor has he hesitated to throw the Khalifate, as well as the Sultanate, into the melting-pot. It is a bold thing to have unfurled the Green Flag of Islam in a war waged by Turkey in alliance with two European Powers, just as much infidels in the eyes of all orthodox Mahomedans as the Powers against which the Jehad has been proclaimed. Perhaps in this matter Enver has, after all, merely sought to oblige his German friends, who would seem, from the Emperor's telegram to the Crown Prince, to place no less faith in the Jehad than in the many other methods of frightfulness' by which the archenemy, England, is at last to be laid low.

6

What Germany expects from the Jehad has been set forth for us very frankly in a pamphlet published in Berlin just after the outbreak of war, by Dr Becker, a Professor of the University of Bonn. After expatiating on the wonderful statesmanship which had years ago inspired the Emperor at Damascus to call the forces of Pan-Islamism in aid for the furtherance of German World Policy in Asia-since Germany, having but very few Mahomedan subjects in her own possessions, had nothing to fear from a Mahomedan uprising, while it would be a growing menace to France and Russia, and above all to England-the learned Professor proceeds to foreshadow, to the satisfaction of his readers, what will happen as soon as Germany has mobilised Turkey. First of all, an invasion of Egypt will strike directly at the most important and at the same time the most vulnerable point in England's world-position. As for India he scarcely

T

trusts himself to disclose all that will happen there as soon as it is known that England, at war with Germany, has become involved in hostilities with Turkey.' Dr Becker wrote before Turkey had taken the plunge, and he could, therefore, only close with a pious prayer 'that the course of this great war may enable the Emperor to redeem his pledge and Germany to show herself by deed as well as by word the friend of Islam.'

It would be premature to enquire into the nature of the evidence upon which Germany based such sanguine expectations. Her agents, we know, have been at work wherever there were symptoms of disaffection towards British rule; and they were, we must assume, satisfied that they had ample justification for counting upon success. Such an enquiry would involve a discussion of the state of public opinion amongst Mahomedans in India and Egypt, and of their attitude towards Turkey, which would be neither profitable nor advisable at this stage of the war. All one can safely say is that Germany's expectations have not yet been fulfilled, and are not likely to be fulfilled if we are true to our own traditions, and remember, as I believe the great majority of our Mahomedan fellow-subjects remember, that the British Empire remains even in the stress of war with Turkey a great Mahomedan Empire which can never be indifferent to the permanent interests of Islam.

VALENTINE CHIROL.

Art. 14.-BRITISH OVERSEA COMMERCE IN WAR TIME. THE importance of commerce in war time has been emphasised by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Speaking in the House of Commons on the outbreak of war he declared it to be vital, in order that we should have an uninterrupted supply of food and material, that our trade should go on during the time of war as it did in the time of peace. The freedom for British commerce which the Government felt confident of securing was no small matter; but its confidence has been well justified. At a time when the Navy was responsible for convoying large bodies of troops from India and the outlying parts of the Empire, the few German cruisers in the outer seas were allowed some liberty. But the total damage done by these marauders has been very small in comparison with the total values of British oversea trade; the depredations have been infinitely less than the most favourable expectations formed by high shipping authorities before the outbreak of war. We have seen what has happened to the German cruisers when the Admiralty could afford to detach forces specially to attend to them.

If anyone should be disposed to regard it as a small thing that our oversea commerce should be maintained in large volume, he should consider the idle condition of the German mercantile marine to-day. That marine before the war was, in comparison with our own, smallin tonnage it was only about a quarter the size of oursbut it was highly efficient. It is now non-existent on the seas. Where are the Vaterland' and the 'Imperator,' the new giants of the Hamburg-Amerika Line? Sheltering at New York and Hamburg respectively. Where is all the fine fleet of the Norddeutscher Lloyd? The 'Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse' has been sunk in action as an armed merchant cruiser; the Berlin' is interned in Norway; the 'Kronprinz Wilhelm' has been acting as a merchant cruiser-others have probably been waiting on the German warships; some ships have been captured and sold at auction; the rest are sheltering in various European and American ports, or in neutral ports in the East. The Cap Trafalgar,' the largest liner in the South American trade, was sunk when acting as a commerce-destroyer by the old British liner Carmania.'

Most of the vessels previously employed in the German South American fleet are either sheltering at Hamburg or in ports along the South American coasts. German companies for years had been developing the trade between New York and the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of South America. Germany had been gradually building up her mercantile marine and making ever greater efforts to acquire an increased share of the world's carrying trade, but she was unable, after the declaration of war, to protect that marine.

We learned from time to time of successful raids by the German cruisers' Emden,' 'Karlsruhe,' and 'Dresden.' Yet, as pointed out above, the actual amount of shipping sunk by these and other vessels is, in proportion to the whole British Mercantile Marine, very small indeed. An estimate which I have made of the total cost of the damage done by German cruisers amounts to just over 5,000,000l.; and that is certainly not an under-estimate. We have heard of these losses because British ships are keeping the seas much as in time of peace; we do not hear now of captures of German merchant-ships at sea because there are none there to capture. Apart from the fact that the German Navy could not protect them at sea, there was no Government insurance to indemnify their owners against the risk of capture, so that the vessels were compelled to seek shelter in the nearest neutral port.

First and foremost, of course, the maintenance of British oversea commerce is due to the work of the Navy. It is the fear of the Navy which has kept the main German fleets in their harbours for weeks on end, and hinders enterprising ships from breaking away to prey on British commerce. It is the Navy which prevented many fast German liners from leaving neutral ports to act as raiders; and it is the Navy which watches over the safety of the hundreds of British ships that are at sea every day. Then it is the patrol work of the Navy which renders almost impossible the direct importation of contraband, such as the metals, rubber, oil and wool, which Germany badly needs for her military campaigns. It is known that supplies have reached the country through Holland and other countries; but,