Jeannette, and the Duchess of Bedford. Of these vessels only one has returned, the Enterprise, commanded by Admiral Collinson. Now, as I show later, the tendency of a ship placed in the ice off Point Barrow is to drift round the land of the Polar Sea; so that the fact that no ships have been able to get far from the land may, in some degree, account for past disasters. It stands to reason also that a ship cannot have the same chance near land as she can in the deep ocean, for there must be an irresistible check to the ice all along the shore, and this causes pressure. Nor does the trouble end here; for however well equipped a vessel may be and however proficient the observers she carries, the value of their observations will be seriously diminished if taken near the land, and in shallow water, where the oceanographic conditions are widely different from those prevailing in a deep sea. A moment's reflection should make this plain. Where ice is for ever going aground and grating along the bottom, and where rivers and streams are discharging into the sea various salts collected off the rocks over which they flow, the original properties of the shallow water are hopelessly complicated by the intrusion of these foreign elements. But precisely what it is important to obtain is a record of observations which will prove the accuracy of those taken by past and future explorers in water free from such disturbing conditions. 8 9 We have next to consider the drift of the thirty-five casks put on the ice north of the American continent in the years 1899, 1900 and 1901. Nine casks were put down east of Point Barrow; the rest west of that Point; and of these thirty-five only four have come to hand. Two drifted round the Arctic Ocean. The first was placed west-north-west of Point Barrow, and after a lapse of five years and nine months was found on the north coast of Iceland. The second which drifted round was placed north of Cape Bathurst in 71° N. Lat. and 128° 05′ W. Long. on the 24th of July 1900, and was found on the island of Soro, off Hammerfest, on the 3rd of November 1908. The other two seem to have failed to enter the true circular drift current, and have been picked up on the coast of Siberia. This gives a gloomy estimate of the chance of the reappearance of any ship put into the ice in the same region. The greater part of the coast-line where these drift-casks might be looked for is well known, being traversed by Eskimo every year, and has been recently visited by various expeditions. What has become of these buoys? Who can tell? They are probably deeply embedded in massive old ice which is just as capable of retaining a ship. There is no certain inference to be drawn from these buoys, as the thirty-one missing may, for all we know, be slowly working across the centre of the Polar Ocean; but as after more than eight years they have not been found, it is a strong argument against a ship being brought through the ice and out again within the utmost • The Geographical Society of Philadelphia. 9 me during which an expedition by ship could keep itself in provisions. When we take into account the more illusive form of a drift-cask, and the necessarily more complicated, and consequently more fragile, nature of a ship's structure, the conclusion to be drawn is that a ship would have certainly not more, and probably less, chances of success than one in nine of drifting safely round or across the Polar Ocean. The results of these drift-cask experiments may be thus summarised. Out of thirty-five casks, thirty-one have not been heard of again at the end of eight years; two, after circling about, were found comparatively near their starting-point on the shore of Siberia; a third reappeared after a lapse of five years and nine months; and a fourth came to hand eight years and three months afterwards. The drifts that we know of-those, namely, of the Jeannette and of the Fram-rather point to the fact of there being either land or old ice in the centre of the Polar Sea and to the north of the drift of those ships; and a careful study of the atmospheric conditions of this region might help by suggesting what is likely to be met with. Looking at the region merely as an immense area of exceedingly low temperature surrounding the Pole, and assuming the absence of such impediments to the motion of the air as mountain ranges, the first condition which strikes me as probable is that there will be over the whole area in general a continual descent of cold air, just as along the earth's equator there is a continual ascent of heated air. Supposing for the nonce that the earth is not rotating, this stream of cold air would flow out in all directions from the north along the surface of the earth directly towards the south; and, if that surface in the Polar regions were ice-covered water, the ice would everywhere be impelled towards the south by a north wind or air-current. How will the earth's rotation and the atmosphere affect the action of the ice drifting on the surface of the ocean? If you follow in imagination the course of any individual cubic yard of air, you will see that as it travels southward it will not keep to the same meridian of the earth; for, as the earth's surface is continually slipping away towards the east, the track of that volume of air will be a line not due south, but inclined to west of south; so that the whole current of air streaming from the region of the Pole will in fact not flow due south, but with an inclination to the west of south. The consequence, of course, will be that such a stream of air, when acting on anything that can obey the impulse, will cause it to follow the same direction. Now the ice in the Arctic Ocean is, as a whole, free to move, but not in the direction away from the Pole and towards the south, because of the land by which the Polar Sea is surrounded. On the other hand, there is little to prevent this ice from moving round the Pole, if it be subjected to such a sideways impulse from the east as is given by the westward element of this same north-easterly air-current. It seems to me that there must exist in the Polar regions an atmospheric motion of this sort, and that it must give an impulse to the ice in a direction such as described. In speaking of the stream of cold air descending on the Polar regions, it is not any movement of the atmosphere like an ordinary wind that is contemplated, but rather a stronger movement, similar to that which in the Tropics is known as the trade winds. When, however, the surface acted on comes to be considered, and the impediments to motion are taken into account, the amount of motion does not promise to be at all considerable, as regards its rate of velocity. If we suppose the Arctic Ocean to empty itself of ice along stream lines converging from all points of its contour through the Greenland Channel, it does not seem at all improbable that it would take at least ten years before all the ice were replaced by new.10 But there is nothing to show that the ice does move in this way; and the theory of impulse given by atmospheric movement which I have just laid down is quite adverse to such a direction of motion. On the contrary, the movement caused would be that of a slow general revolution round the Pole, the ice everywhere coming from the east and departing towards the west. An estimate of twenty years for one revolution from north of Greenland round to Spitzbergen by way of the American coast, New Siberia, Franz Josef Land, &c., would not surprise me. But again, the Arctic Ocean is, though land-locked, not devoid of outlets there are such in Behring Strait, in Baffin Bay, and in the Greenland Channel. Of these outlets the first two may be disregarded, being either small or blocked by islands, so that they can do but little in the way of allowing the ice of the Arctic Ocean to escape. With the Greenland Channel the case is different, as the channel is both broad and deep, and its action on the ice-sheet is considerably assisted by the comparatively warm arm thrown into it by the Atlantic drift current. Accordingly it is to the north of this outlet that the breaking up of the Polar ice principally takes place, the fragments escaping down the Channel as bergs and floes. This break-up, with its accompanying destruction from back-pressure of the ice, cannot but affect the ice in its rear, which is constantly under the influence of a power urging it forward while the resistance is removed or very much lessened; and thus a stream or flow will be formed, and once formed, will be likely to retain its position and direction. In this way I think it is probable that the line of drift past Franz Josef Land is formed, and its beginning may be traced much further back to the east; but Dr. Nansen in the Fram found that the first beginnings of his drifting journey near the New Siberian Islands were very vague and uncertain. Moreover, its progress entailed drifting backwards before the regular direction of his advance showed his ship to be certainly placed in the line of drift. Further back and to the east of Point Barrow the drift might well be expected to be utterly uncertain, so that a ship might spend some years before 10 Geographical Journal, vol. xxxi., p. 286. getting into the stream which would carry her past Franz Josef Land. It will be seen, therefore, if this argument is correct, that no line of drifting in the ice may be expected to carry a ship over the Pole, but rather to carry it towards the coast surrounding the Arctic Ocean, and that the utmost approach to the Pole which could be looked for would be one after the fashion of the Fram, on the north edge of the drift that carried her to a position whence a sledge expedition might be successfully made; but the return journey would be full of adventure, as the ship, once left, would be very difficult to find again. SLEDGES AND THEIR ADVANTAGES In the face of such grave difficulties, is it to be wondered at if the merits of a sledge expedition-the only possible alternative—be seriously examined? Suppose a sledge expedition to be as well equipped as a ship; or, to take a concrete example, suppose that Commander De Long had put such an expedition equipped for five years on the floe where the Jeannette took the ice in sight of Herald Island; surely he would have accomplished at far less expense what the Jeannette and the Fram did; nay, he would possibly have achieved a far higher latitude than their united drifts were capable of attaining. It is quite possible to place upon the ice, one hundred miles northwest of Prince Patrick's Island, a sledge expedition, well equipped for any period, and to move supplies slowly east or west, according to the direction of the drift. With a few Eskimo and their knowledge of house-building in the snow, more comfortable quarters could be supplied than a ship would afford out of the material found upon the ice. Moreover, that such an expedition would be able to make its way across the Arctic Ocean seems probable; for we have nothing to show us that there will be any danger from the ice itself, provided the party does not try to make the land during the summer months. It is essential that both the getting on and the getting off the ice be carried out in the winter time. The explorers, once on the move, could be continually taking observations, and progressing at short intervals, and thus be always advancing towards their goal. Furthermore, it is important in all sledge expeditions to start for a point where supplies can be obtained, and not, as everyone has done in the past, to start away with the intention of eventually returning by the same route. The history of Arctic travel gives us no reason to suppose that the ice presents any insurmountable difficulty. Looking through the names of those who have made ice journeys-Wrangel, Parry, Collinson, Markham, Nansen, Carni, Peary, and Mikkelsen-we can find but one instance, as far as I know, of anyone perishing through attempting to make an ice journey-namely, a supporting party that went out in the Duke of Abruzzi's expedition to assist Carni." The real cause of disaster has not been the endeavour to make an ice journey, but rather the attempt to make the land during the summer months; which has in each case been necessitated by want of food. The Jeannette party supplies an instance of this. We know that the Fram was upheld by the ice for thirty-two months, and the Jeannette for eighteen months, and this quite close to land. In the face of these facts, who will venture to deny that the ice is capable of carrying supplies for several years? The problem, indeed, resolves itself into an enterprise more favourable than the crossing of a desert. In the latter undertaking one has to contend with a tropical sun and with a great dearth of water-difficulties which do not exist on the ice; and my belief is that, if the months of July, August and September are given up to rest, and to the taking of observations, while the Eskimo hunt such mammals as seal, white whale, narwhal and walrus, a much larger supply of food may be obtained on the ice than in a desert. THE OBJECTS TO BE ATTAINED These considerations have led me to conclude that, when once means have been found to convey sufficient provisions on to the ice in high latitudes, the attainment of the Pole, and the exploration of that unknown region, is merely a matter of slow and steady advance. Whether there be land, or a deep sea covered with ice, is an open question, the solution of which, no matter how it be solved, will prove of scientific value. Even if the Pole is not reached, the result of the investigation of the physical features of the earth's crust in the Polar regions will be a most important object attained. If land be found, it will doubtless present greater difficulties to a sledge expedition than would a deep sea; nevertheless, the geological structure and geographical position of this land would, apart from its flora and fauna, be matters of valuable knowledge; and there might even be found there some relics of Baron Toll and his followers, or of André. If, on the other hand, a deep sea were found, as Dr. Nansen deems probable, the oceanography would be of great value. A much greater depth may exist in the centre of this ocean than we at present anticipate, since 2100 fathoms have been found quite close to the edge of the continental shelf. For this reason I have arranged to carry with me 10,000 fathoms of sounding wire and a portable machine (no portion of which would weigh more than 40 lbs.) capable of taking a sounding to a depth of 5200 fathoms. Hence, if land is found, I shall have the necessary instruments with me to locate and map that land; if, on the other hand, a deep sea is found, I shall be able to obtain the depths of the ocean and specimens of the bottom, as well as many other scientific observations. 11 On the Pole Star in the Arctic Sea, p. 661. |